ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/031800Z-
041800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.3S 101.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 96.9E, APPROXIMATELY 667 NM EAST 
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING 
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. A 031515Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN 
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH WEAKLY DEFINED BANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(5-10KTS), MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28C). GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (94S) WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TOWARDS THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.5S 58.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 61.4E, APPROXIMATELY 189 NM SOUTH OF 
THE COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031355Z 
SSMIS F16 COMPOSITE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC 
WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR 92S WITH WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) AND 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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