ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/021800Z-
031800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.5S 101.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 101.4E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 021710Z HIMAWARI-9 IR DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
CONFIDENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION (92S) WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY 
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TOWARDS THE 
NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.4S 58.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 58.1E, APPROXIMATELY 824 NM WEST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021409Z 
SSMIS F16 COMPOSITE DEPICT AN ELONGATED AREA OF TROUGHING BOUNDED BY 
WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE AREA 
OF CONVECTION (92S) WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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