ABIO10 PGTW 021400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/021400Z-021800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.5S 102.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 101.5E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 0115147Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A BELT OF 
20-25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY SITTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATELY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS), MODERATE EASTERLY OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.4S 58.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 58.7E, APPROXIMATELY 826 NM WEST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 010604Z 
ASCAT DEPICTS WEAK LLCC WITH THE FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO 
COLLAPSE, PARTICULARLY THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED 
CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE OVER THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF 
THE CIRCULATION BUT REMAINS DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE LLCC. A 020950Z 
AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT SOME 
FRAGMENTED AND DEVELOPMENTAL SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONFIDENT 
THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION (92S) WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO MEDIUM//
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