ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/011800Z-
021800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.0S 108.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 517 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 0115147Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A BELT OF 
20-25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY SITTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATELY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-
30 KTS), MODERATE EASTERLY OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S 
57.1E, APPROXIMATELY 922 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 010604Z ASCAT DEPICTS WEAK LLCC WITH THE FLARING 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO COLLAPSE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(5-15 
KTS), GOOD TO MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(28-29C).GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT TRACKING TO 
THE THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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