ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/311800ZDEC2024-011800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.0S 109.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 108.4E, APPROXIMATELY 264 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 311438Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BELT OF 20 KNOT 
WESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY SITTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SYSTEM. SCATTEROMETRY DATA ALSO DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION 
WITH WEAKER WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (20 KTS), MODERATE EASTERLY OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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