ABIO10 PGTW 310000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/310000ZDEC2024-311800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.0S 109.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 109.8E, APPROXIMATELY 252 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN 
PORTION OF PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION. SCATEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A 
MORE SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KTS), STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) CONDUCIVE TO 
FUTURE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE 
INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT IN SLOW AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1)//
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