ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/301800Z-
311800ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.5S 110.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 109.3E, APPROXIMATELY 233 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) 
INDICATE AN AREA OF BROAD CIRCULATION AND FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED 
OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DISORGANIZED LLCC. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER 
DATA DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOTS WINDS AROUND TWO-THIRDS 
OF THE OVERALL ROTATION, AND LIGHTER WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF 
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE AREA INDICATES MODERATELY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(20 KTS) TO THE NORTH. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW  AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING FORWARD. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN SLOW AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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