ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/282121ZDEC2024
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.4S 174.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 175.3E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED HIMAWARI-9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A COMPACT BUT WELL-FORMED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ).
THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF DAYLIGHT IN THE VISIBLE CHANNEL REVEALS
PULSATING OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST, WITH FORMATIVE BANDING STRUCTURES TRYING TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED TO BE 30 KTS BASED
ON THE LIMITED DATA AVAILABLE. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VWS (05-10KT), GOOD DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM SST (29-30C). ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FAVORING DEVELOPMENT
FOR 91P OVER GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC WHICH ARE NOT SHOWING STRONG
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH THIS IS TYPICAL FOR SPCZ STORMS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 282130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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