ABPW10 PGTW 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/282200Z-290600ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/282121ZDEC2024
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.8S 171.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 174.2E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI. ANIMATED HIMAWARI-9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES A COMPACT BUT WELL-FORMED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ) AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING. 
THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF DAYLIGHT IN THE VISIBLE CHANNEL REVEALS 
PULSATING OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CENTRAL DENSE 
OVERCAST, WITH FORMATIVE BANDING STRUCTURES TRYING TO BECOME 
ESTABLISHED.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED TO BE 30 KTS BASED ON 
THE LIMITED DATA AVAILABLE. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VWS (05-10KT), GOOD DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
MOIST MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND WARM SST (29-30C). ECMWF ENSEMBLE 
(ECENS) HAS APPROXIMATELY 30% OF MEMBERS STILL DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM 
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT 
HANDLING THE CURRENT ANALYSIS WELL, WHICH IS OFTEN TYPICAL OF SYSTEMS 
WITHIN THE SPCZ. THAT SAID, IT IS POSSIBLE INVEST 91P MAY HAVE ALREADY 
REACHED ITS PEAK AND HAS ONLY A LIMITED WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL 
DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD, DUE TO DRIER AIR THAT 
SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCROACH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 282130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED 
FOR INVEST 91P//
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