ABPW10 PGTW 272200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/272200Z-280600ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.7S 170.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM 
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS 
PERSISTED NEAR 14.7S 170.9E, APPROXIMATELY 233 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT 
VILA. ANIMATED HIMAWARI-9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A 
COMPACT BUT WELL-FORMED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ) HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 
OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF DAYLIGHT IN THE VISIBLE CHANNEL 
REVEALS PULSATING OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WITH FORMATIVE BANDING STRUCTURES TRYING TO 
BECOME ESTABLISHED.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED TO BE 30 KTS 
BASED ON THE LIMITED DATA AVAILABLE, INCLUDING A 271800Z PGTW DVORAK 
ANALYSIS WHICH YIELDED A T2.5 (35 KTS). AN INITIAL 271800Z T1.5 KNES 
FIX ESTABLISHED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS FROM THAT AGENCY. A 
PGTW REANALYSIS OF 271200Z IMAGERY YIELDED A T2.0 (30 KTS). 
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO CURRENT SCATTEROMETRY OR OTHER OCEAN 
SURFACE WIND DATA TO CORROBORATE THE LIMITED DVORAK ESTIMATES. 91P IS 
CURRENTLY IN A NARROW CHANNEL OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VWS (05-10KT), GOOD DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
MOIST MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND WARM SST (29-30C). NUMERICAL 
GUIDANCE DOES NOT CALL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, HOWEVER THE 
AVAILABLE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT ANALYSIS 
WELL, WHICH IS OFTEN TYPICAL OF SYSTEMS WITHIN THE SPCZ. THAT SAID, IT 
IS POSSIBLE INVEST 91P MAY HAVE ALREADY REACHED ITS PEAK AND HAS ONLY 
A LIMITED WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS 
SOUTHEASTWARD, DUE TO DRIER AIR THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCROACH OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B. (1) TO 
HIGH.////
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