ABPW10 PGTW 272000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/272000Z-280600ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.7S 
170.9E, APPROXIMATELY 233 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA. AN ANIMATED 
HIMAWARI-9 IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A COMPACT BUT 
WELL-FORMED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC 
CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A 12Z DVORAK REANALYSIS RESULTED IN AN 
ASSESSMENT OF T2.0, WHILE THE 18Z DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A T2.5 THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 30KTS GIVEN LIMITED DATA AVAILABLE.  
UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO CURRENT SCATTEROMETERY OR OTHER OCEAN SURFACE 
WIND DATA TO CORROBORATE THE LIMITED DVORAK ESTIMATES. 91P IS CURRENTLY 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VWS (05-10KT), GOOD 
DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29-30C). NUMERICAL GUIDANCE 
DOES NOT CALL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, NOR DO THEY APPEAR TO BE 
HANDLING THE CURRENT ANALYSIS WELL. THAT SAID, IT IS POSSIBLE INVEST 91P 
MAY HAVE ALREADY REACHED ITS PEAK, AND HAS ONLY A LIMITED WINDOW FOR 
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE UPCOMING AVAILABILITY OF VISIBLE IMAGERY 
WILL HELP FURTHER REFINE THE ANALYSIS AND INFORM WHETHER A TCFA OR 
WARNING IS WARRANTED.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 2.B. (1).//
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