ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/261800Z-
271800ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260351ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.5S 94.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 94.9E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM WEST OF 
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
261202Z SSMIS F17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER 
THE OBSCURED CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN SIDES OF THE 
SEMICIRCLE. A 261441Z ASCAT METOP-B BULLSEYE INDICATES A SWATH OF 30-35 
KNOT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN TO WESTERN SIDES OF THE TROUGH, WITH 
LIGHT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND EAST. THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA FURTHER 
REVEALS SHARP TROUGHING RESEMBLING A CUSP THAT IS NOT FULLY CLOSED INTO AN 
ORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER. A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM COCOS ISLANDS 
REVEALS WINDS AT 9 KNOTS FROM THE EAST AND STATION PRESSURE AT 1009 MB. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 98S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-30 KNOTS, 
GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-
29 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 98S WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE NEAR TERM, DEPICTING STEADY MODEL 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE, INDICATING A FULLY CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CAN BE 
EXPECTED WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260400) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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