ABIO10 PGTW 260400 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED CORRECTED/260400Z-261800ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260351ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.9S 93.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 94.0E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 252326Z SSMIS F17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE OBSCURED CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE 
STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, FORECASTING A WARNABLE SYSTEM WITHIN THE 
FIRST 24 HOURS. IN GENERAL, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL CONSOLIDATE, DEPICTING 
STEADY MODEL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260400) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED MISSING REFERENCE AND AMPN.//
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