WTXS21 PGTW 260400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 93.5E TO 13.0S 96.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5S 94.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.9S 93.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 94.0E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 252326Z SSMIS F17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION OVER THE OBSCURED CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) 
OF 28-29 C OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. GFS AND 
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, 
FORECASTING A WARNABLE SYSTEM WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. IN GENERAL, 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
98S WILL CONSOLIDATE, DEPICTING STEADY MODEL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
270400Z.//
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