ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/251800Z-
261800ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.9S 93.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 95.3E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 251216Z SSMIS F17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION OVER THE OBSCURED CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE 
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF THE SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS. GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE, FORECASTING A WARNABLE SYSTEM WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. 
IN GENERAL, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 98S WILL CONSOLIDATE, DEPICTING STEADY MODEL DEVELOPMENT OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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