ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/231800Z-
241800ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) 
HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3S 98.1E, APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTHEAST OF COCOS 
ISLAND. AN 231730Z HIMIWARI-9 IR DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING 
CONVECTION WITH A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
98S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) 
VWS AND GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AS WELL AS WARM (28-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL 
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE 99 NM SE OF COCOS ISLAND, WITH DEVELOPMENT 
EXPECTED BETWEEN 72-96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN