ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220551ZDEC2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220321ZDEC2024//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220221ZDEC2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS. REF C IS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.8N 115.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 115.5E, APPROXIMATELY 194 NM 
NORTH OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
212251Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER AND AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, AND FLARING 
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 98W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM  (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS). ADDITIONALLY, LAND INTERACTION WITH BRUNEI IS 
FURTHER DETERIORATING THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 98W WILL GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS GETTING ABSORBED INTO INVEST 99W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. SEE 
REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 220230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.8N 114.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 114.5E, APPROXIMATELY 479 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A PERSISTENT PLUME OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN 
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A 21/2250Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS 
FORMATIVE BANDING CURVED AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE. VIGOROUS NORTHERLY 
LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN SOUTH CHINA SEA IS EXPECTED TO 
BEGIN WRAPPING AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH 99W, 
ESTABLISHING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MODERATE POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT CENTER OF WHAT HAS BEEN A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN SOUTH CHINA SEA, 
ABSORBING THE PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH 98W. THE 
ENSEMBLES SHOW A GENERALLY SLOW, NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 
12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 220330) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.6S 147.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 152.6E, APPROXIMATELY 424 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 220438Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A MORE DEFINED 
CIRCULATION, WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING AND CURVED DEEP 
CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS THAT INVEST 96P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
96P IS GENERALLY GOING TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 220600) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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