WTPS21 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P) REISSUED.//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210551ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.2S 151.8E TO 21.5S 159.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.7S 152.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.6S 147.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 152.6E, APPROXIMATELY 424 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 220438Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A MORE DEFINED 
CIRCULATION, WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING AND CURVED DEEP 
CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
THAT INVEST 96P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, 
WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P IS GENERALLY GOING 
TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
998MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A 
(WTPS21 PGTW 210600). 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
230600Z.//
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