ABPW10 PGTW 220330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/220330Z-220600ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220221ZDEC2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220321ZDEC2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION. REF B 
IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.6N 114.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 115.5E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DECAYING CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO 
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY, THE PROXIMITY TO 
LAND IS INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 98W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W IS EXPECTED TO FILL INTO A TROUGH, 
WHILE A NEWER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH 99W BECOMES 
THE DOMINANT SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO 
LOW. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 220230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N 
114.8E, APPROXIMATELY 464 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT PLUME OF DEEP 
CONVECTION FLARING ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE. A 21/2250Z SSMI/S 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING 
CURVED AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE. VIGOROUS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW 
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN SOUTH CHINA SEA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WRAPPING 
AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH 99W, ESTABLISHING A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 99W WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT CENTER OF WHAT HAS BEEN A BROAD AREA 
OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN SOUTH CHINA SEA, FOREGOING THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH 98W. 
THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A GENERALLY SLOW, NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE 
NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTPN21 PGTW 220330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.6S 147.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0S 149.4E, APPROXIMATELY 247 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. A 202348Z ASCAT-C IMAGE 
REVEALS PRIMARILY 15-25 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 
ELONGATED CIRCULATION, WITH A LIMITED REGION OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER 
THE EASTERN QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. 
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE TOWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS FAIRLY 
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM CREAL REEF INDICATE 25-30 KNOT SUSTAINED EASTERLY 
(10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WINDS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA. 
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA ARE 
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER, RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. INVEST 96P IS 
LOCATED UNDER MODERATE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
(15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A QUICK 
EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND A SHORT WINDOW FOR WARM-CORE 
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO LOW. 
ADDED HIGH AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
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