WTPN21 PGTW 220230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210551ZDEC24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 210600). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 114.7E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 115.5E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRUNEI. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND 
DECAYING CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 
KTS). FURTHERMORE, THE PROXIMITY TO LAND IS INHIBITING FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OF 98W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W 
IS EXPECTED TO FILL INTO A TROUGH, WHILE A NEWER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH 99W BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO 
DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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