ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/211800Z-
221800ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 
84.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 85.1E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-NORTHEAST 
OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BURSTS OF 
FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT 
WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASINGLY DRY MID LEVELS DUE TO DRY 
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS IS OFFSET 
BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL MEANDER IN THE BASIN 
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF 
INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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