ABPW10 PGTW 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/202200Z-210600ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.2N 110.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.3N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 121 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
DEPICTS 98W SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MALAYSIA WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. A 201747Z ASMR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED 
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98W IS IN A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-
25 KNOTS, DIFFUSE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
OF 28-29 C. WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GFS BEING THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE, GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W 
WILL CONSOLIDATE TO WARNING THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.2S 144.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 201717Z SSMIS F18 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED, FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES 96P IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MODEL IS 
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, INDICATING 96P MAY BRIEFLY REACH WARNING 
CRITERIA. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96P 
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND 2.B.
(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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