ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.1N 123.3E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.2N 
110.5E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH 
SPORADIC CONVECTION.  A 190227Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES A 
DEVELOPING DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE NORTHERLY 
WINDS DISLOCATED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT INVEST 98W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE TO 
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.8S 143.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 228 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A BROAD ROTATION TO THE WEST OF TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA, WHICH 
HAS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED 
RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A MISALIGNED VORTEX, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION 
TILTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 
191201Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS ELEVATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS 
PRESENT IN THE CORAL SEA, IN THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE LARGER ROTATION.  
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96P IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96P 
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES 
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE CORAL SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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