ABPW10 PGTW 200230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200230Z-200600ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191821ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.9N 125.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 123.6E, APPROXIMATELY 166 NM 
NORTHWEST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING MORE FULLY EXPOSED WITH FLARING CURVED 
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. FURTHERMORE, DRY AIR IS 
BEGINNING TO WRAP MORE INTO THE WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC. A 191200Z ASCAT 
METOP-B 25KM SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS ASYMMETRIC GRADIENT INDUCED 
20-25 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ABOUT 100NM TO THE NORTHEAST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS 
OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH 
THE BOHOL SEA, INTERACTION WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN FEATURES WILL FURTHER 
DISRUPT THE STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH 96W CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 191830) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.2S 
144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 124 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD ROTATION TO THE 
WEST OF TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA, WHICH HAS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A 
TILTED VORTEX, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION PUSHING OUT TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FLARING 
CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 
191201Z ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS ELEVATED 20-25 KNOT 
WINDS THAT ARE ALREADY PRESENT IN THE CORAL SEA, IN THE EASTERN EXTENT 
OF THE LARGER ROTATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 
96P IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE CORAL SEA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS 
FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF 
THE CORAL SEA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).////
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