ABIO10 PGTW 200200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/200200Z-201800ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.4N 
82.6E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING 
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY, WITH A PARTIAL 191629Z ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALING 15-20 KNOTS OF WIND NEAR THE POORLY 
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, 
CONVECTION HAS FORMED INTO A SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), 
HOWEVER THE VORTEX REMAINS TILTED AND THE LLCC IS DISPLACED TO THE 
SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT 91B IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, 
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INTRUDE AND SLOWLY WRAP INTO THE LLCC, ALLOWING 
FOR A SLOW CONSOLIDATION FOR 91B. GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).////
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