ABPW10 PGTW 191900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191900Z-200600ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191821ZDEC2024//
AMP/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 
127.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 125.7E, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM NORTH OF 
DAVAO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD 
AREA OF POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
BECOMING MORE FULLY EXPOSED WITH FLARING CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE 
NORTH-NORTHEAST. FURTHERMORE, DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP MORE INTO THE 
WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC. A 191200Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM SCATTEROMETERY PASS 
REVEALS ASYMMETRIC GRADIENT INDUCED 20-25 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND 
ABOUT 100NM TO THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96W IS 
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
WHICH IS OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES 
THROUGH THE BOHOL SEA, INTERACTION WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN FEATURES WILL 
FURTHER DISRUPT THE STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH 96W CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 181930) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO LOW.//
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