WTPN21 PGTW 191830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181921ZDEC24//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 181930)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 181930). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 127.6E IS NOW LOCATED 
NEAR 9.9N 125.7E, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM NORTH OF DAVAO. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF POORLY DEFINED 
CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING MORE FULLY 
EXPOSED WITH FLARING CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. 
FURTHERMORE, DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP MORE INTO THE WEAKLY DEFINED 
LLCC. A 191200Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS ASYMMETRIC 
GRADIENT INDUCED 20-25 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ABOUT 100NM TO THE 
NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE BOHOL SEA, INTERACTION WITH 
COMPLEX TERRAIN FEATURES WILL FURTHER DISRUPT THE STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT 
OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH 96W 
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1021 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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