ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181921ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.4N 127.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 272 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING REDEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEASTERN 
AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LAST GOOD 
SCATTEROMETER PASS WAS NEARLY 24 HOURS AGO, AND THE ONLY DATA AVAILABLE 
WAS A PARTIAL 181330Z ASCAT-C PASS WHICH SHOWED AN ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. WINDS 
WERE LIGHT IN THE SCATTEROMETER PASS, BUT THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY 
ON THE EAST SIDE AND NOT CAPTURED BY THE SCATTEROMETER PASS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96W IS NOW IN A MORE 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN 
HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, GOING FROM STRAIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY 
FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE RELAXED FLOW PATTERN, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO 
ESTABLISH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE VORTEX REMAINS TILTED HOWEVER, AT 
LEAST AT THE MOMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
96W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE 
TRACKING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST OF MINDANAO. THE LIMITED TIME OVER 
WATER AND VORTEX MISALIGNMENT WILL RESULT IN SLOW CONSOLIDATION, AS 
DEPICTED IN BOTH THE ECEPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH ALSO INDICATE 
SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF 96W AND THE WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.4N 147.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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