WTPN21 PGTW 181930 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 127.7E TO 10.4N 125.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 127.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 128.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM NORTHEAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING REDEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LAST GOOD SCATTEROMETER PASS WAS NEARLY 24 HOURS AGO, AND THE ONLY DATA AVAILABLE WAS A PARTIAL 181330Z ASCAT-C PASS WHICH SHOWED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. WINDS WERE LIGHT IN THE SCATTEROMETER PASS, BUT THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE EAST SIDE AND NOT CAPTURED BY THE SCATTEROMETER PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96W IS NOW IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, GOING FROM STRAIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE RELAXED FLOW PATTERN, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO ESTABLISH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE VORTEX REMAINS TILTED HOWEVER, AT LEAST AT THE MOMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE COAST OF MINDANAO. THE LIMITED TIME OVER WATER AND VORTEX MISALIGNMENT WILL RESULT IN SLOW CONSOLIDATION, AS DEPICTED IN BOTH THE ECEPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH ALSO INDICATE SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF 96W AND THE WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 191930Z.// NNNN