ABPW10 PGTW 181300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181300Z-190600ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181251ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.5N 128.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM 
NORTHEAST OF DAVAO. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 180910Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH 
SHALLOW, FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
WEAK OUTFLOW AND LAND INTERACTION OFFSET BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(10-15KTS) AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD, THEN VEER SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER 
MINDANAO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE 
REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 181300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: CANCELLED TCFA AND DOWNGRADED AREA IN 
PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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