ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171451ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.7N 127.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 128.3E, APPROXIMATELY 82 NM EAST OF 
DAVAO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 172203Z SSMIS 
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH, FRAGMENTED, 
FORMATIVE BANDING ORGANIZING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
96W WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN 
PHILIPPINES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 171500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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