WTPN21 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161451ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.3N 127.2E TO 9.5N 126.5E WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF 
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE 
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 171430Z INDICATES 
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 127.3E. THE SYSTEM IS 
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.2N 127.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 127.3E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 170923Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING 
BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 96W WILL GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS 
THE SYSTEM STEERS CLOSER TO THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 161500).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
181500Z.//
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