ABPW10 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161500Z-170600ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161451ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 
127.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) 
AND A 160937Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING THROUGHOUT 
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 161310Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE REVEALS A 
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 
RELATIVELY HIGH WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHILE SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29C 
AND 30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO 
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ASIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 161500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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