ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 
130.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160127Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE REVEALS 
AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC SURFACE CIRCULATION, WITH 15-20KT WINDS 
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W 
IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, BETWEEN 29C AND 30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND 
CONSOLIDATE NEAR SOUTHERN MINDANAO.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.9S 160.8E  HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL, COLD-CORE
LOW AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
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