WTXS31 PGTW 150900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHIDO) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHIDO) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 40.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 40.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.9S 37.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.1S 35.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.1S 33.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 39.5E. 15DEC24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHIDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S AS HAVING MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 15 NM SOUTH OF PEMBA, MOZAMBIQUE AT 0400Z. THE SYSTEM, AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL, HAD A PINHOLE EYE AND A 150253Z RCM-1 SAR IMAGE SHOWED A VMAX OF AROUND 120 KTS IN A CONCENTRIC RING 10 NM OUT FROM THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS VERY RAPIDLY ERODED AS IT MOVES INLAND DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AND THE COMPACT SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. 04S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NO LATER THAN TAU 36, AND POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF 04S, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 966 MB.// NNNN