ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.8N 138.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY 471 NM EAST 
OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A WAVE-LIKE FEATURE PROPAGATING WESTWARD WITH BROAD FLARING CONVECTION. 
A 150047Z ASCAT-B IMAGE EMPHASIZES THE WEAK NATURE OF 96W WITH NO 
EVIDENT CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
(10-15 KNOT), WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD 
AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE NEAR SOUTHERN MINDANAO. THOUGH OVERALL 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT CIRCULATION AT THIS 
TIME WILL SERVE TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.	
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.9S 
160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 544 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NIUE. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED 
AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INVEST 95P WITH AN 
ASYMMETRIC, ELONGATED WIND FIELD WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A LARGE SWATH OF CONVECTION IS OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IS FLOWING POLEWARD AND EASTWARD 
AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM INTO A STRONG JET MAX DISPLACED TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND BORDERLINE SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-27 C). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT 
95P WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH LITTLE 
TO NO CHANCE FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, 
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS 
PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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