ABIO10 PGTW 110730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/110730Z-111800ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101951ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 10DEC24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHIDO) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 10.6S 59.6E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 102100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5S 98.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 98.3E, APPROXIMATELY 127 NM 
NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 110048Z 89GHZ GMI DEPICT INVEST 91S WITH A ELONGATED LLCC 
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A 081413Z 
ASCAT METOP-B 50 KM PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE NORTH 
AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. AS FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, 91S IS IN A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND 
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS. LASTLY, GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM REMAINING NEARLY 
QUASI-STATIONARY, WHILE BACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT ODDS FOR 91S. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS UNLIKELY 
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE 
PROBABILITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.2S 111.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 109.2E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM 
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA . ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY. A 110218Z ASCAT-B 25KM ASCENDING SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALS 
A CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOTS OF WIND INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS 
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY FOR ITS LIFESPAN , DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO 
WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93S IS IN AN AREA OF WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HAS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, 
THESE FAVORABLE FACTORS ARE OFFSET BY HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 
SLOW DISSIPATION OF INVEST 93S. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.8S 128.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(3).//
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