ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100751ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 10DEC24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHIDO) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 10.6S 60.8E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.4S 97.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 98.1E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM 
NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND.  ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INVEST 91S WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A 081413Z ASCAT 
METOP-B 50 KM PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND 
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. AS FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, 91S IS IN A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND 
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS. LASTLY, GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM REMAINING NEARLY 
QUASI-STATIONARY, WHILE BACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT ODDS FOR 91S. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS UNLIKELY 
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE 
PROBABILITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.2S 115.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 
101330Z ASCAT-B 25KM ASCENDING SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALS A 
CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOTS OF WIND BECOMING MORE ELONGATED AND 
ASYMMETRIC. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 
INVEST 93S IS IN AN AREA OF WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
HAS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THESE FAVORABLE FACTORS 
ARE OFFSET BY HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF 
INVEST 93S. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL 
CONTINUE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.2S 129.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 128.1E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM 
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO 
GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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