ABIO10 PGTW 092130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/092130Z-101800ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09DEC24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 11.0S 62.4E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 092100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.0S 62.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.5S 100.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 97.4E, APPROXIMATELY 107 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INVEST 91S WITH A FULLY EXPOSED 
LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A 
081413Z ASCAT METOP-B 50 KM PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE 
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. AS FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, 91S IS 
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. LASTLY, 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM REMAINING 
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY, WHILE BACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT ODDS FOR 
91S. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS 
UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE 
PROBABILITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.5S 117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 115.7E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM 
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 091038Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION, WITH FRAGMENTED 
FORMATIVE BANDING SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW  (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL GENERALLY 
TRACK SOUTHWEST WARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.2S 129.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 211 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A BROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO 
GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING 
STATUS.//
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