ABIO10 PGTW 091800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED CORRECTED/091800Z-101800ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090051ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.5S 100.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 97.4E, APPROXIMATELY 107 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INVEST 91S WITH A FULLY EXPOSED 
LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A 
081413Z ASCAT METOP-B 50 KM PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE 
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. AS FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, 91S IS 
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. LASTLY, 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM REMAINING 
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY, WHILE BACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT ODDS FOR 
91S. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS 
UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE 
PROBABILITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.9S 67.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 64.9E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM 
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 92S WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC AND 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE EAST, THOUGH THE LLCC HAS 
BEEN STEADILY MOVING CLOSER TO THE CONVECTIVE MASS. A 082041Z AMSR2 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES 
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. 92S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C OFFSET BY MODERATE 
TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS. HOWEVER, CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC 
MOTION VECTOR (AMV) ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SPLITTING 
TO THE EAST OF 92S, AND LOCALIZED SHEAR NEAR THE CENTER IS LIKELY 
LOWER THAN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. LASTLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE 
OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MESOSCALE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 92S 
WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND REACH WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 18 
TO 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 090100) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.5S 117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 115.7E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM 
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH.  ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 091038Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION, WITH FRAGMENTED 
FORMATIVE BANDING SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW  (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL GENERALLY 
TRACK SOUTHWEST WARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.2S 129.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 211 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A BROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO 
GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MISSING INVEST IN PARA
2.B.(4).
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