ABIO10 PGTW 091330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/091330Z-091800ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090051ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.5S 117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 116.4E, APPROXIMATELY 426 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 091038Z GMI 89GHZ 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION, WITH 
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW  (10-15 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
93S WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWEST WARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) A REGION OF TROUGHING (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.2S 
129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 159 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED 
ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE 
AROUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS THAT INVEST 94S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO GENERALLY TRACK 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO 
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.9S 67.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 64.9E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM 
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 92S WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC AND 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE EAST, THOUGH THE LLCC HAS 
BEEN STEADILY MOVING CLOSER TO THE CONVECTIVE MASS. A 082041Z AMSR2 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES 
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH REMAINS EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. 
92S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT. HOWEVER, CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTOR (AMV) 
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SPLITTING TO THE EAST OF 92S, 
AND LOCALIZED SHEAR NEAR THE CENTER IS LIKELY LOWER THAN THE 
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. LASTLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 
24HRS. MESOSCALE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 92S WILL QUICKLY 
INTENSIFY AND REACH WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 090100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM. ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
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