WTXS21 PGTW 090100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7S 65.3E TO 10.6S 59.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5S 64.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.9S 67.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 64.9E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM 
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 92S WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC AND PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE EAST, THOUGH THE LLCC HAS BEEN STEADILY 
MOVING CLOSER TO THE CONVECTIVE MASS. A 082041Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE SHOWS WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE 
LLCC, WHICH REMAINS EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. 92S IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 
20-25 KT. HOWEVER, CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTOR (AMV) ANALYSIS SHOWS 
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SPLITTING TO THE EAST OF 92S, AND LOCALIZED 
SHEAR NEAR THE CENTER IS LIKELY LOWER THAN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. 
LASTLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL 
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MESOSCALE INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
INDICATES THAT 92S WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND REACH WARNING THRESHOLD 
WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
100100Z.//
NNNN