ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.8S 68.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 824 NM 
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS INVEST 92S WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC AND 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE EAST. A 081428Z GMI 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO BACKS THE EIR DEPICTION, BUT REVEALS PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. 92S IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD 
DUAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C 
OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. HOWEVER, CIMSS 
ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTOR (AMV) ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS 
ARE SPLITTING TO THE EAST OF 92S, AND LOCALIZED SHEAR NEAR THE CENTER 
IS LIKELY LOWER THAN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. LASTLY, GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO 
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS, WITH GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECASTING 
92S TO BRIEFLY REACH WARNING THRESHOLD BY 48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.5S 100.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 99.4E, APPROXIMATELY 202 NM 
NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INVEST 91S WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A 081413Z ASCAT 
METOP-B 50 KM PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF 
THE LLCC. AS FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, 91S IS IN A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
OF 29-30C OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. LASTLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM REMAINING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY, WHILE 
BACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT ODDS FOR 91S. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE PROBABILITIES FOR 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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