ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.6S 102.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 100.2E, APPROXIMATELY 299 NM 
NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC, WHICH HAS REMAINED NEARLY QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS, WITH PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY 
FLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C 
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS AND WEAK 
UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BACKED 
OFF ON DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, WITH THE 
GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, IS MIXED, WITH THE 
GEFS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT, WHILE THE ECENS IS A 
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE, HAVING SEVERAL MEMBERS WHICH INCREASE THE SYSTEM 
TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN 
VERY SLOW-MOVING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD 
TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH INVEST 93S IN THE LONG 
TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.8S 79.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 74.4E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT, HIGH EASTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C OFFSET BY HIGH NORTHEASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE 
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.  GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY BUT WILL REMAIN 
BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE 
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON BOTH 
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY TRENDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN