ABIO10 PGTW 061930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/061930Z-071800ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
	(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.0S 105.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 102.7E, APPROXIMATELY 208 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 061243Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED LLC WITH FLARING, PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH. A 061454Z ASCAT METOP-B BULLSEYE 
INDICATES 15-20 KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH, WITH 
LIGHT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91S WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
	(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
10.8S 79.2E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LLCC, WHILE THE 061418Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO 
REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 061554Z ASCAT-C 
METOP-C 50KM PASS REVEALS 20-25 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 
THE SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
OF 29-30C OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS AND MODERATE 
UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE IN THE 
INDIAN OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
	(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
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