ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/291800Z-
301800ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281951ZNOV2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291351ZNOV2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.3N 81.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONSOLIDATING PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 291608Z 
GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING 
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 
291547Z ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 
KT WINDS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE DEFINED CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-
20KT). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B 
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF INDIA 
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
29 TO 34 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 282000) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 29NOV24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ROBYN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
18.8S 94.5E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 291500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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