ABIO10 PGTW 291530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/291530Z-291800ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281951ZNOV2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291351ZNOV2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.1N 83.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 81.9E, APPROXIMATELY 111 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION. A 281648Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE BROAD 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 281525Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE INDICATES AN 
ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE 
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DEFINED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 2829C OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 99B WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS 
POLEWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 29NOV24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ROBYN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 18.8S 94.5E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS 
ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 291500) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 2.A.(1) WITH 03S FINAL 
WARNING INFORMATION.//
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