WTXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ROBYN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ROBYN) WARNING NR 005    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z --- NEAR 18.8S 94.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 94.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 19.3S 94.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 94.5E.
29NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ROBYN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY ERODED AFTER IT DRIFTED 
INTO INCREASING (30KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOL (25C) SST, AND COLD 
DRY AIR INTRUSION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE RAGGED, FULLY EXPOSED, AND ALMOST WASHED OUT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES
FROM CIMSS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGH VWS, COOL SST, AND DRY AIR INTRUSION OFFSET ONLY BY STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE 
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 
291200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 12 
FEET.//
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