ABIO10 PGTW 282000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/282000Z-291800ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281951ZNOV2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZNOV2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.1N 83.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 84.0E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 
281648Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE 
BANDING THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. A 281525Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST AND 
SOUTHWEST OF THE DEFINED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD 
UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-
29C OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL 
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD TOWARD THE EAST 
COAST OF INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 282000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28NOV24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ROBYN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.4S 91.1E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: RESISSUED TCFA.//
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