WTIO21 PGTW 282000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99B) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271951ZNOV24// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 84.2E TO 12.4N 80.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 282000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 84.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 83.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 84.0E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED, PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 281648Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 281525Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DEFINED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 272000). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 292000Z.// NNNN